元江—红河干流径流时序特性及突变分析  

ANALYSIS ON THE RUNOFF DISTRIBUTION AND THE VARIABILITY IN THE DOWNSTREAM OF HONGHE RIVER

作　　者：叶长青[1] 甘淑[1] 王文玲[1] 邓卿艳[1] 陈文华[1] 李运刚[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南大学亚洲国际河流中心,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《长江流域资源与环境》2008年第6期886-891,共6页Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2003CB415105);云南省自然科学基金重点项目(2003C0002Z)

摘　　要：以元江干流主要控制性水文站蛮耗站在1956～2000年观测记录共45年的径流量序列数据为基础，运用Mann-Kendall、有序聚类和累积距平等统计方法分析元江径流分布规律及其变化的基本特征。结果表明：实测径流年内分配不均，年际变化不大，年径流变差系数为0．263。实测径流量序列存在明显的阶段性和缓慢上升趋势。对元江实测径流序列进行还原处理得到天然径流量，发现其与实测径流的差异不大，多年平均水资源耗水量仅占天然径流量的2．92％。年径流量和径流系数在1965年和1994年前后都发生两次增加突变；而年降水量与流域年蒸散发量没有发生突变。归一化植被植物变化表明元江干流植被覆盖在1993年左右被破坏较为严重。因此，得出径流变化趋势主要与降雨有关，两次突变主要受人类对下垫面改变的影响。Based on the 45 years measured data of runoff series from the Manhao Station that is the main controlling hydrological station in the downstream of Honghe River, the basic characteristics of runoff variability have been analyzed by using Mann-Kendall, cluster technique method, accumulated deviation and other statistical methods. The results showed that the measure runoff distribution was non-uniform intra year and small change in years,and the Cv of annual runoff is 0. 263. There is a slow ascending trend for annual runoff and the stages of variety process are clear. Measure runoff of Manhao Station was reverted to natural runoff and the results showed that the mean water resources consumption was accounted for 2.92%. Both annual runoff and runoff coefficient have jumps of increase occurred around 1965 and 1994. On the contrary, both annual precipitation and evaporation have no jump. The variability of NDVI indicated that vegetation in the downstream of Honghe River was destroyed so severely in 1993. Consequently, the jumps of runoff were major influenced by activity of humanity while the trend change was affected by the precipitation.

关 键 词：元江-红河 径流量 时序特性 突变特性 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学] TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]