东亚最适度通货区内生性标准的检验——贸易与经济周期相关性的视角  

Test on Endogencity Standard of East Asian Optimum Currency Area From the Perspective of The Relationship Between Trade and Business Cycle

作　　者：崔晓燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财政学院金融系,山东济南250014

出　　处：《金融理论与实践》2008年第11期41-47,共7页Financial Theory and Practice

摘　　要：已有的研究文献普遍将贸易关联度和经济周期的相似性指标分别作为最适度通货区的两个独立的判断标准,运用历史数据来研究哪些经济体适宜组建一个最适度通货区。这种割裂两者关系的研究方法有可能产生不正确的结论,使得某些国家事先看来满足加入最适度通货区的条件而在事后看来并不合意。本文将这两个指标作为两个相互影响的内生变量,通过研究它们之间的动态变化关系来判断东亚各经济体是否适宜组建最适度通货区。实证研究结果表明:目前东亚区域基本满足建立最适度通货区所需的自我强化发展的动态约束条件,即随着东亚地区经济一体化程度的加深,开展东亚货币合作的条件将随之改善,而东亚货币合作通过稳定汇率则能够进一步促进实体经济一体化。在此基础上,本文指出,尽管目前东亚经济体进行货币合作的成本较高,但是它们完全可以着眼于未来收益而积极参与区域一体化的合作进程。In Current literatures, history data are used and indices as trade intensity and business cycle comparability are adopted to constitute an optimum currency area, but mistakes may be made if we use this method. In this paper, trade intensity and business cycle comparability are adopted as two endogenous variables which influences reciprocally, and the dynamic relationship between them is chose as the standard to judge which East Asian economies are suitable to constitute optimum currency area. The empirical result shows that the dynamic constraints to self-development are satisfied so that an optimum currency area can be established in East Asian. In despite of the high cost of currency cooperation for East Asian economies, they should participated region economic actively for their future benefits

关 键 词：内生性 贸易关联度 经济周期 动态约束 最适度通货区 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]