亚洲中部干旱半干旱区近100年来的气温变化研究  

Temperature Variations in Arid and Semi-Arid Areas in Middle Part of Asia during the Last 100 Years

作　　者：王劲松[1,2] 陈发虎[2] 张强[1] 靳立亚[2] 李静[2] 金明[2] 陈建徽[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室中国气象局干旱气候变化与减灾重点开放实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室中德干旱环境研究中心,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《高原气象》2008年第5期1035-1045,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40775057);甘肃省气象局“十人计划”项目共同资助

摘　　要：利用亚洲中部干旱半干旱区1961—2003年共计69个站的气温实测资料，并通过EOF展开的延长插补方法，将研究区的气温序列延长到1901年，进而分析了这一区域近100年来的气温变化。研究表明，该区域气温的一致性变化占主导地位，同时存在东部季风区、中亚、蒙古高原和塔里木干旱区等4个主要温度变化分区，均表现出显著的增暖趋势，其代表站近100年来线性拟合的增温率分别为0．19，0．16，0．23和0．15℃／10a，研究区平均增温率为0．18℃／10a，冬季达0．21℃／10a，远高于北半球、全球和我国的增温率，但与青藏高原增温率相近。除20世纪10年代和50年代外，研究区气温变化主要取决于冬季温度的变化。研究区近100年来的气温变化经历了70年代以前的相对缓慢升温和以后的显著升温过程，且增温率越来越大。亚洲中部干旱半干旱区的气温变化过程与我国东部地区显著不同，没有出现明显的20～40年代暖期，整个升温过程由6次明显的锯齿状的升温-降温变化过程（即20，40，60，80，90年代和本世纪初气温变化过程）构成，升温阶段持续时间较长，幅度较大，而降温阶段时间短，幅度小，但不论升温还是降温过程，其变化幅度均大于我国东部和全球平均。The temperature change is analyzed by using the surface temperature data of 69 stations from 1961--2003, which are extended forward to 1901 with an EOF interpolation method in arid and semi-arid areas in Middle part of Asia （it is abbreviated to ARID--ca hereinafter, which includes central Asia, Mongolia, Northwest China and North China）. The results show that the main characteristic of temperature change is consistent arid and semi-arid areas in Middle part of Asia, at the same time 4 temperature abnormal areas are obtained by using REOF method, namely Eastern Monsoon Area（area Ⅰ）, CentralAsia（area Ⅱ）, Mongolia Plateau（area Ⅲ） and Tarim Arid Area （ area IV）, and every area represents distinct warming trend. The linear rates of temperature increase during 1901--2003 over the above 4 abnormal areas are about 0. 19, 0.16, 0.23 and 0.15℃/10a for the annual mean, respectively, and those of the total ARID-AREA are about 0. 18℃/10a for the annual mean and 0. 21℃/10a for the winter mean, which exceed those of the Northern Hemisphere, Global and China, but are close to those of Tibetan Plateau. In the last 100 years, the temperature arid and semi-arid areas in Middle part of Asia has come through relative slowly warming process before 1970＇s and obvious warming after 1970＇s, and the rate of temperature increase is higher and higher. Comparing with East China, the temperature change has notable difference arid and semi-arid areas in Middle part of Asia. There is no obvious warming from 1920＇ s to 1940＇s, but there are 6 zigzagged increased-decreased cycles of temperature in the whole warming process arid and semi-arid areas in Middle part of Asia, namely 1920＇s, 1940＇s, 1960＇s, 1980＇s, 1990＇s and early this century. The duration of temperature increase is longer and the amplitude is bigger, whereas it is shorter and smaller in period of temperature decrease. No matter in the stages of temperature increase or decrease, the vary amplitude of temperature is bigger than those

关 键 词：亚洲中部干旱半干旱区 气温变化 温度序列 锯齿状的变化过程 

分 类 号：P423.34[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]