上海地区小麦赤霉病预报中温湿度指标的改进  

Improvement of Temperature and Humidity Index in Forecast of Wheat Scab in Shanghai

作　　者：吴春艳[1] 李军[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市气候中心,北京100089 [2]上海市气候中心,上海200030

出　　处：《中国农业气象》2008年第4期499-501,506,共4页Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology

基　　金：上海市科技兴农攻关项目"上海市主要粮食作物重大病虫害预测及防治决策系统"

摘　　要：赤霉病是常见的小麦病害,温湿度气象条件对于小麦赤霉病的发病有着重要的作用,因此,在预报时选取合适的温湿度指标是获得较高预报准确率的关键。本文采用上海地区1975-2007年的气象和小麦赤霉病资料,分析了小麦始穗期的变化;由于小麦始穗期普遍提前,原来以4月中旬-5月中旬的平均温度≥15℃、相对湿度≥85%连续3d的天数为指标预报小麦赤霉病的预报准确率开始下降,经分析确定以始穗期-5月20日平均温度TP≥13℃、平均相对湿度UP≥83%连续3d的天数作为新的指标。经对历史资料的模拟检验,新指标对小麦赤霉病的预报准确率明显提高,由60%提高到83.3%。The scab is a usual disease of wheat. The temperature and humidity have important effects on the occurrence of wheat scab. So choosing proper temperature and humidity indices is the key for acquiring higher forecasting exactness rate. The change of early heading of wheat was analyzed by using the data of meteorological and wheat stages and wheat scab data. As the beginning of the wheat early headir_g stage became earlier, the forecast accurate rate declined by the old indexs, which were the mean temperature above 15℃ and the mean relative humidity by 85% in continual three days from the second ten days of April to the second ten days of May. Comparison and practical forecast tests showed that the new index was the mean temperature higher above 13℃ and the mean relative humidity by 83% in continual three days from the early heading stage of wheat to the second ten days of May. The practical application showed that the forecast accurate rate by the new index was improved from 60.0% to 83.3 %.

关 键 词：小麦赤霉病 预报 温湿度指标 

分 类 号：S435.122[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]