南海区高分辨率非线性耦合作用台风风暴潮数值预报试验与研究  

Forecast and study of Typhoon storm surge over the South China Sea by a high resolution nonlinear coupling model

作　　者：李希茜[1,2] 林丽茹[3] 赵雪[2] 宋萍萍[2] 冯伟忠[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学环境工程学院,青岛266003 [2]国家海洋局南海预报中心,广州510300 [3]国家海洋局南海分局,广州510300

出　　处：《海洋预报》2008年第4期53-62,共10页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家海洋局南海分局局长基金资助

摘　　要：本文对适用于南海区多因素影响的二级粗细嵌套网格风暴潮模型进行开发研究,考虑目前计算条件限制和预报实际时效的需要,采用天文潮与风暴潮的非线性相互作用二级模型进行风暴潮潮位实验研究。本文的研究改进现有风暴潮模式中仅考虑风与气压影响增减水的缺陷,考虑了天文潮的非线性影响风暴潮潮位等因素,预报出实时风暴潮潮位,与目前多因素海洋动力耦合模型有相似之处。更好地提高了风暴潮增减水及实时潮位的预报精度,给出直观的近岸海域风暴潮潮位时空分布。A coarse-fine grid nested multi-factors storm surge model was developed for the South China Sea. Considering the computational limit and the maximum forecast time need, the nonlinear effect of astronomic tide and storm surge was added in the model to study the storm surge tide level. The old storm surge model only considered wind and sea level pressure effects on the tide level, and this limit was improved by considering the nonlinear effect of astronomic tide to the storm surge tide level. The real-time forecast tide level given by the model was similar to the results of current multi-factors ocean dynamical coupling model. The model not only gave a finer forecast precision of storm surge water variation and real-time tide level, but also provided an intuitional temporal and spatial distribution of storm surge tide level in the coastal sea.

关 键 词：南海 台风风暴潮 风暴潮增减水 

分 类 号：P731[天文地球—海洋科学]