农业干旱程度量化分析及其概率分布  

Quantification analysis of agricultural drought degree and its probabilistic distribution

作　　者：陈晓楠[1] 邱林[2] 黄强[1] 段春青[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048 [2]华北水利水电学院设备处,河南郑州450008

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2008年第5期108-112,共5页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：河南省高校创新人才培养工程项目(HNCX2003-17);青海省科学技术厅基金资助项目(2004-G-158)

摘　　要：评估农业干旱程度的量化指标和方法很多,但评估指标最重要的是应能正确反映干旱给农业造成损失的大小。基于这一思想,从干旱与农业损失的关系出发,建立了农业干旱程度评估指标的量化模型。考虑到农业干旱程度具有随机性,在该模型的基础上,利用蒙特卡罗模拟方法对农业干旱程度的概率分布进行了研究,使之能够定量地、连续地描述旱情,并可以直接反映干旱给农业造成的损失。以河南省濮阳市渠村灌区为例,计算了当地农业干旱程度的概率分布,以及不同干旱程度给农业造成的损失,验证了该模型的正确性。There were many methods and quantitative indexes in the drought degree evaluation for agriculture, but the most important is that drought degree evaluation for agriculture should correctly reflect the loss caused by the agricultural drought. Based on the relations between the drought and the loss of the agriculture, this paper establishes the quantitative models of drought degree evaluation for agriculture. Considered the randomness of the drought degree of agriculture and based on the models, this paper makes research on the probability distribution of drought degree for agriculture with Monte Carlo simulation method, it can quantitatively and continuously describe the ravages of a drought, and it also can reflect the loss of the agriculture caused by the drought for agriculture. Finally this paper calculates the drought degree of agriculture and the loss of the agriculture for different drought degree in Qucun Irrigation Area, Puyang City, Henan Province and validates the correctness of the model .

关 键 词：农业干旱程度 概率分布 蒙特卡罗模拟 

分 类 号：S274.1[农业科学—农业水土工程]