太平天国战争前后安徽的垦殖考量  

The examination and quantization of cultivation in Anhui before and after the War of Taiping Heavenly Kingdom

作　　者：赵赟[1] 满志敏[2] 

机构地区：[1]华东理工大学人文科学研究院,上海200237 [2]复旦大学历史地理研究中心,上海200433

出　　处：《地理研究》2008年第6期1252-1260,共9页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40271034);教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(07JC770017)

摘　　要：以安徽垦殖为例,充分考虑各种误差因素,把误差控制在一定范围的要求,借助历史学的研究方法对文献资料进行考证与鉴别,运用现代的统计科学对数据进行一致性检验与修正,尝试对太平天国战争前后安徽的垦殖变动进行量化处理,提出耕地数据重建及无资料时段垦殖率插补的可行性方法,并以此完成战争前后分县垦殖率的重建,进而利用GIS再现区域垦殖变化格局。资料检验表明,这是一种较为合理的土地利用空间格局度量方法。In view of the probability of historical documents,it is stressed that the time-scales on the study of LUCC covers the past 300 to 500 years in China.Land statistical figures from official documents before the year of 1911 had more errors which could not meet a criterion of modern statistics,only a special term ＂fiscal-unit＂ showing taxation and mixing different land use types.Owing to the complex nature of historical statistics,we need not only textual research and discrimination error of historical documents,but also consistent examination and amendment of the land statistics,not a single one can be omitted. The War of Taiping Heavenly Kingdom was an inflection point of cultivated land use change from summit to bottom in Anhui Province during the Qing Dynasty.The thesis makes an attempt on quantization treatment of cultivation in counties of Anhui before and after the War,and also puts forward reestablishment of cultivation data and a feasible interpolation algorithm for the cultivation rate without recorded data by using historical documents,linking with analysis by means of modern technology and taking all error factors into consideration in which the deviation within the limits is under control.Cultivation rate in counties of Anhui before the War is mainly calculated by saturation ratio,and after the War by population losing ratio.Based on the above,we complete reconstruction of cultivation rate in different counties of Anhui before and after the War,and then display the changing pattern of cultivation in Anhui by GIS.It is a relatively reasonable measure to quantize spatial distribution of cultivation and reclamation which is authenticated by historical documents.

关 键 词：太平天国战争 安徽 垦殖 量化 插补 

分 类 号：F329[经济管理—产业经济]