基于概率分布模型的北京地区冰雹灾害风险区划  

Hail risk distribution based on probability density model in Beijing region

作　　者：翟志宏[1] 姜会飞[1] 叶彩华[2] 廖树华[1] 李楠[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]北京市气象局气候中心,北京100089 [3]山东省气候中心,济南250031

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报》2008年第6期49-53,共5页Journal of China Agricultural University

基　　金：国家科技支撑项目(2006BAD04B03);东北平原中部(吉林)春玉米丰产高效技术集成研究与示范--玉米超高产环境条件研究课题(2006BAD02A10);国家科技部农业科技成果转化资金项目(2004740070594)

摘　　要：利用北京地区20个地面气象台站1951—2006年的冰雹数据,统计分析了各台站冰雹日数在作物生长季4-10月的不同月份及年度发生的风险概率特征,并在此基础上进行了北京地区不同时段不同雹日数的冰雹风险区划。结果表明:北京地区各台站雹日数在不同时段的发生具有明显的POSSION分布特点;从年度分布来看,风险概率随着年雹日的增多逐渐降低,各台站年雹日≥1、2、3、4 d的风险概率分别在50%、18.8%、4.6%和0.9%以上。从空间来看,北京地区冰雹风险具有明显的山区高于城区的空间分布特征,山区又以西北部最大、东部和西部次之、南部最小;西北部山区佛爷顶附近冰雹年发生概率高达98.1%,6月冰雹风险概率也在60%以上,是北京地区冰雹的主灾区。Based on data from 20 meteorological stations in Beijing region between 1951 and 2006, risk distribution maps of hail disaster in Belling region were made after probability density functions were determined. The results showed that hail disaster has marked characteristics of POSSION distribution. Risk of hail disaster reduced along with the increasing hail days in a year. The hail risk probabilities are 50 percent, 18.8 percent, 4.6 percent and 0.9 percent respectively while the hail days are no less than 1, 2, 3 and 4 in a year. Hail risk distribution presents marked spatial characteristics in Beijing. Spatially, the high-frequency hail disaster occurred mainly in mountainous areas rather than urban areas. The northeastern part is much more likely to have hail storms than the southern area. The hail risk probability of Fuyeding station in northwestern part is 98.1 percent in a year and over 60 percent in June. it is the main disaster district in Beijing.

关 键 词：冰雹灾害 概率 风险 POSSION分布 

分 类 号：S427[农业科学—植物保护]