和田河流域气温与降水量长期变化趋势及其持续性分析  

Long-Term Trends and Sustainability Analysis of Air Temperature and Precipitation in the Hotan River Basin

作　　者：徐宗学[1,2] 米艳娇[1] 李占玲[1] 陈亚宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,水沙科学教育部重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《资源科学》2008年第12期1833-1838,共6页Resources Science

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新二期项目(编号:KZCX2-XB2-03);中国科学院创新工程重要方向项目(编号:KZCX2-YW-127)

摘　　要：采用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法对和田河流域两个主要气象站点月、年平均气温序列和逐月、年平均降水量序列进行趋势检验,在此基础上运用R/S分析方法,估算各时间序列的Hurst指数,预测该流域气温、降水量的未来变化趋势及其持续性,并采用随机重排法对估算结果进行了稳定性检验。分析结果表明:和田河流域在过去近50年内,气温变化趋势以增温为主,秋、冬季增温趋势尤为显著;降水量变化总体上呈增加趋势,夏季降雨量增加趋势较明显;未来的气温、降水量变化趋势表现为较强的长程依赖性,说明在未来一段时间内,其上升趋势还将持续一段时间。Long-term trends for the time series of air temperature and precipitation at two meteorological stations in the Hotan River basin were detected using the nonparametric Mann-Kendall technique. In order to estimate future trends of air temperature and precipitation, R/S method was used to estimate the Hurst index. The reliability of this estimation was tested by comparing H values obtained from original time series and from stochastically reset ones. The results showed that during the past half century, air temperature increased in the whole Hotan River basin, especially in autumn and winter. The separate test results for temperature at two stations also exhibited an increasing trend. All the H values estimated from original time series and from stochastically reset ones are greater than 0.5, which indicates that the air temperature in the Hotan River basin will continue to increase in the future. During the past 50 years, precipitation in the Hotan River basin showed a general increasing trend, with a decrease of precipitation in spring and a strong increase in summer. The trends for autumn and winter are not obvious. Two separate time series of seasonal precipitation in summer from the two stations showed a strong increasing trend, and the β values for annual average precipitation are positive, which indicates an increasing trend. H values for precipitation time series showed long-range dependence, which indicates that in the future, precipitation will continue to increase. In the process to estimate Hurst index using R/S method, the least squares method was used to estimate slope. There were some human factors in the estimation, which may result in subjective errors. R/S method is efficient for testing the long-range dependence of large samples, but errors may exist when relative small samples are used. In this study, a relatively short time series of less than 50 years was used, which may result in estimation errors. However, this result should be helpful for local water resources planning and management, and

关 键 词：和田河流域 Mann—Kendall 非参数检验 HURST指数 气温 降水量 

分 类 号：P333.1[天文地球—水文科学]