三角模糊数的工程项目风险识别  

Risk identifiation based on triangular fuzzy number for construction project

作　　者：刘仁辉[1] 张劲强[1] 韩喜双[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2008年第10期1617-1620,共4页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：黑龙江省青年科学技术专项资金资助项目(QC05C75)

摘　　要：为了实现提高工程项目风险识别的可靠性,对风险因素引入了三角模糊数的方法进行量化研究.考虑工程项目特点的基础上,对承包工程项目总体风险因素进行了分析,并构建了工程项目风险评价指标体系.通过三角模糊数建立工程项目风险评价判断矩阵,应用Yager第三指标原理,对三角模糊数互补判断矩阵进行了排序,从而得出风险指标的权重.通过三角模糊数的方法能够实现工程项目中的不确定风险因素的数量化,从而提高了工程项目风险识别的效果.In order to achieve the reliability of project risks identification, the method of triangular fuzzy number was used to study the quantification of risk factors. All risk factors were analyzed based on the characteristic of construction projects, thus an evaluation framework of risk was established for construction projects. The complementary judgment matrix was designed based on the triangular fuzzy number. Furthermore, the third index of Yager was applied to the transformation of fuzzy number into non-fuzzy number, and priorities of complementary judgment matrices were provided. The result realize for identifying the pivotal risk factor of construetion project risk, and resolve with identification issues for the unknown risk factors.

关 键 词：项目风险 风险评价 三角模糊数 互补判断矩阵 

分 类 号：TU72[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]