500hPa位势高度场月季业务数值预报的评估  

AN EVAIUATION TO THE MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OPERATIONAL NUMERICAL PREDICTION ON 500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FIELD

作　　者：梁益国[1] 祝昌汉[1] 叶正青[1] 杨梅玉[1] 郑琼[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心 [2]南京大学

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1997年第A00期154-163,共10页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家气候中心95-96年度业务发展基金;国家科委"九五"重中之重项目"我国短期气候预测系统的研究"

摘　　要：对Ｔ６３、ＮＪ、ＣＣＭ１、ＣＣＭ２等４个数值模式分别以１９９５年６月～１９９６年３月期间，各月３０日（２月为２９日）００时为初始场进行了１０例月预报，对后２个模式分别用以上的６、８、１１及２月个例为初始场进行了４例的季预报．通过对区域（１０°～５０°Ｎ，７０°～１６０°Ｅ）和北半球５００ｈＰａ位势高度场进行预报与实况距平符号一致率、距平相关系数、均方根误差、ＳＳ评分等因子的检验，分析了各模式预报的特点，对比了模式对以上个例５００ｈＰａ位势高度场的预报能力．结果表明，分辨率高的Ｔ６３模式在月预报个例试验中，无论是对区域还是对北半球，其４项评分相对要好于其它模式．季预报试验表明，对区域和北半球的预报各模式评分都不稳定且比较低，季节预报能力都比较差．Four numerical models (T63, NJ, CCM1 and CCM2) are respectively incorporated to run ten case monthly integrations generated from their initial datasets, which include 00 UTC 30 th of every month(but for 29 February 1996) from June 1995 to March 1996. In addition, the latter two models are also used to run four case seasonal integrations based on four initial datasets of 30 June, 30 August, 30 November 1995 and 29 February 1996. Four skill score factors including anomaly consistency rate, coefficient of anomaly correlation, root mean square error and SS score for 500 hPa geopotential height are calculated both in the domain(10° ～50°N , 70°～160°E) and Northern Hemisphere, respectively. Forecast characteristics of these models are analyzed. Their predictive capabilities for 500 hPa geopotential height to those ten cases listed above are compared. By comparing the four skill score factors, it is shown that the model T63 with highest resolution is superior to others for both in the domain and Northern Hemisphere in monthly forecast. But in seasonal forecast, the skill scores of four models all are more unstable and lower both in the domain and Northern Hemisphere, showing poor seasonally predictive capability.

关 键 词：数值模式 业务预报 天气预报 位势高度场 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]