气候模拟与预测效果的统计学与动力学诊断分析  

STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL DIAGNOSTICS OF THE CLIMATE SIMULATION AND PREDICTION RESULTS

作　　者：耿全震[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心

出　　处：《应用气象学报》1997年第A00期164-174,共11页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家科委"九五"重中之重项目"我国短期气候预测系统的研究"

摘　　要：文章简要介绍了气候模拟与预测结果诊断分析的必要性及目前状况．初步探讨了在气候模拟与气候预测中瞬变波（或天气尺度波动）的作用、误差产生、增长和传播规律及海－气相互作用问题．结果表明：（１）尽管瞬变波对平均流和低频异常有重要作用，而且在气候模式长时间的积分过程中一般不能预报出每个单个的天气过程或瞬变波（逐日预报的可预报性一般仅为两周左右），但气候模式还是能被用来做长时间的数值积分进行气候模拟与预测，这可能是因为瞬变波对平均流的长期群体强迫作用具有与平均流相当的可预报性．（２）模式的误差源与模式动力学相耦合可以很好地解释一些气候模拟与预测误差的产生、增长和传播规律．（３）海温对气候异常的影响存在时空局域性特点及对ＳＳＴ异常强度和大小的依赖，这些特征对短期气候预测的效果有重要影响，研究和利用这些规律不仅可以加深理解气候预测结果好坏的原因，而且还可以推断气候预测结果的可信程度．A brief review of the diagnostic analysis of climate simulation and prediction results is given. Some problems in the climate simulation and prediction, like the role of transient forcing (or synoptic waves), error generation, growth and propagation and air sea interactions are analyzed. It is found that (1) although the transient forcing are important to the maintenance of time mean flow and low frequency anomalies and every single synoptic event or transient wave can not be predicted with the long term integration of climate model (the predictability of daily forecast is only about two weeks), the climate models can still be used to make climate simulation and prediction with long term integration probably because that the transient forcing has similar predictability with that of the mean flow. (2) model error source coupled with the model dynamics can give a good explanation to the generation, growth and propagation of some climate simulation and prediction errors. (3) the influences of SST on climate anomalies have the characteristics of spatial and temporal localizability and strongly depend on the value and strength of the SST anomalies. These characteristics have strong influences on the short term climate prediction results. Study and use of these characteristics can not only understand the climate prediction results, but also can deduce the confidence level of the climate prediction.

关 键 词：气候模拟 预测效果 统计学 动力学 诊断分析 

分 类 号：P457[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P437