改革开放三十年中国经济周期与宏观调控  

Study on China's Economic Cycle and Macro-control Efforts in 30 Years of Reform and Opening-up

作　　者：黄赜琳[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学财经研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《财经研究》2008年第11期88-100,共13页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家教育部社科青年项目"经济波动与宏观调控的动态一般均衡研究"(06JC790029);上海重点学科建设项目(B802)的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：改革开放以来,我国经历了数次经济周期和宏观经济政策调整,正确认识与把握中国经济周期的特点,对于改善宏观调控、促进国民经济稳定快速发展有着重要意义。文章首先考察了1978-2007年间中国历次经济周期的运行规律与波动特征,并结合中国实际情况,从所有制结构、社会总供求关系、经济结构、价格体制、调控手段和对外开放度等方面分析宏观调控对我国经济波动形成机制产生的影响;接着从国际经济周期的角度考察了中国、美国与世界经济周期的同步性特征,以及中国与世界其他15个不同市场类型的国家和地区之间经济周期存在的特征事实;最后给出了主要结论及政策建议。China has experienced several economic cycles and macro-economic policy adjustments since reform and opening-up. Cyclical features will be of great significance to improve macro-control and promote the stable and fast development of our national economy. The paper studies the operation rules and fluctuation features of Chinese economic cycles, and analyzes the effects of macro-control on the mechanism for generating economic fluctuation from the aspects of ownership structure, the relation between aggregate social supply and demand, economic structure, price regime, macro-control tools and the level of opening-up. Then it analyzes the synchronicity among economic fluctuations of China, America and the world from the perspective of global economic cycle and the cyclical facts between China and other 15 countries which are different in market type. At last, some conclusions and policy suggestions are given.

关 键 词：经济周期 宏观调控 特征事实 

分 类 号：F049[经济管理—政治经济学] F120.2