家鼠型鼠疫发病率模式函数与关联监测法  

An incidence mode function on commensal rodent plague and the linking surveillance method

作　　者：李镜辉[1] 马永康[2] 李贵昌[1] 李天元[2] 刘京立[1] 王国良[2] 葛军旗[1] 李俊勇[2] 俞东征[1] 董兴齐[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制所媒介生物控制室,北京102206 [2]云南省地方病防治所

出　　处：《中国媒介生物学及控制杂志》2008年第6期550-552,共3页Chinese Journal of Vector Biology and Control

基　　金：国家社会公益研究专项基金项目(2003DIBIJ084)

摘　　要：目的深入认识家鼠型鼠疫的发病机制,科学制定或选择相应的监控措施。方法以数学语言表达家鼠型鼠疫由鼠到人的传播途径,以彰显各发病决定因子之间的内在联系;对有关的家鼠型鼠疫监测方法进行分析比较。结果(1)导出家鼠型鼠疫发病(率)模式函数(式);(2)关联监测法与平行监测法比较,更符合流行病学原理和统计学要求,因而更有效;实际工作量更小,因而更符合"成本效益比"要求。结论(1)家鼠型鼠疫发病率模式函数彰显了各发病因子间的内在联系,对家鼠型鼠疫的预防控制具有普遍的指导意义和广阔的应用前景;(2)家鼠型鼠疫的监测应采用关联监测法,不应采用平行监测法。Objective To know deeply the incidence mechanism of commensal rodent plague and scientifically work out or choose appropriate surveillance and control measures. Methods The transmission route from rodents to humans of commensal rodent plague was expressed by mathematical language to show up the inherent relations among the decisive factors, and its relevant monitoring methods were analyzed and compared. Results （1）An incidence mode function of the plague was derived. （2） The linking surveillance method was more effective than the parallel surveillance method, and the former was more accordant with the epidemiology principles, the statistics requirements and the ＂benefit-cost ratio＂ requirement because of its smaller workload. Conclusion （1）The incidence mode function on commensal rodent plague disclosed the inherent relations among the decisive factors of the disease, and had the important guide function and wide application prospects to its prevention and control. （2） The linking surveillance method should be suited to the surveillance ,of plague compared to the parallel surveillance method.

关 键 词：家鼠型鼠疫 发病率模式函数 关联监测法 平行监测法 

分 类 号：R512.801[医药卫生—内科学] R446.112[医药卫生—临床医学]