应急撤离建模研究的现状、问题与发展趋势  

The Current Situation,Issues and Trends of Evacuation Modeling in Emergency

作　　者：张子民[1] 李琦[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京大学遥感与地理信息系统研究所,北京100871

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2008年第10期120-126,共7页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(30590371);国家"973"计划项目(2006CB701306)

摘　　要：分析以往的突发事件应急撤离决策过多依赖决策者主观判断的问题,提出通过构建应急撤离模型为决策者提供更客观的辅助决策信息,并阐述了应急撤离建模过程涉及的主要要素。通过对3种主要应急撤离建模方法——宏观、微观和中观的撤离建模过程的详细介绍和分析,综观了当前应急撤离建模的研究现状。在该基础上,研讨每种建模方法的特点、适用范围以及存在的主要问题,并针对这些问题,给出可能的解决方法和未来的发展方向。归纳应急撤离建模研究的成果,提出在实际应急撤离建模工作中应注意的问题。By analyzing the issue that the emergency evacuation mainly relies on the personal judgments of decision-makers in former emergency, it is firstly proposed that more objective assistant decision information should be provided for the decision-makers through constructing a rational emergency evacuation model. Then, the main elements involved in the evacuation modeling are presented and explained, and a detailed analysis on the modeling process of the three emergency evacuation modeling approaches-macro, micro, and meso evacuation modeling-is made, which gives a whole review of the current researches on emergency evacuation modeling. After that, a further analysis on the characteristics, applicable situations, and main issues of each evacuation modeling approach is made. Based on the analysis, some possible solutions for these issues are listed, and some important research tendencies of these approaches are presented. Lastly, the achievements on emergency evacuation modeling are concluded, and some attentive questions in actual evacuation modeling are given.

关 键 词：应急撤离 撤离建模 撤离模型 撤离决策 突发事件 

分 类 号：X913.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学]