北方草地生态气象综合监测预测技术及其应用  

Technology and Application of Ecology Meteorological Synthetic Monitoring and Predicting for Northern Grassland in China

作　　者：钱拴 毛留喜 侯英雨 吴门新 王良宇 

机构地区：[1]国家气象中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气象》2008年第11期62-68,130,共8页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：国家气象中心自筹基金;中国气象局新技术推广项目;2007年生态与农业气象轨道项目的共同资助

摘　　要：近几十年来中国90%以上的草地出现退化现象,特别是内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、新疆、青海、西藏等地区,草地退化严重,国家急需掌握气象条件对草地植被生长的影响,了解草地生产力、牲畜承载力以及生态质量状况。为此,在实时获取北方草地气温、降水量、日照时数等气象要素和气象卫星植被指数以及产草量观测资料的基础上,应用模糊数学、集合运算、统计分析等多种方法和"3S"手段,建立了北方草地植被生长气象条件优劣评价、产草量和载畜量预测、草地生态质量监测等模型。2005年以来,利用这些模型逐年评价了气象条件对草地植被生长的优劣影响、预测产草量和载畜量、监测草地生态质量优劣,获得了良好的服务效益。北方草地2007年生态气象监测预测结果表明:所建模型综合了多种资料和技术优势,结果符合实际;形成的综合监测预测技术可为国家保护和恢复草地生态环境提供科学依据。The grassland of more than 90 % has degraded to some extent in recent decades in China, especially the grassland in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu, Qinghai, Xinjiang and Tibet degraded severely. The management department urgently needs to know how the meteorological influence on grassland vegetation growth, production, carrying livestock and ecological quality. The models about evaluating of meteorological conditions, predicting of grassland production and carrying livestock, and monitoring of ecological quality have been established by utilizing the fuzzy mathematics, collection operation, statistical analysis and ＂3S＂technology. The used data in the model are grassland temperature, precipitation, sunlight hours, NOAA NDVI, grass biomass observation and so on. Theses models are used timely in service. The good benefits are obtained. The application of northern grassland ecological meteorological monitoring and predicting in 2007 is given. The result shows the models integrated many data resource and method advantage. The model results are close to the reality. The established synthetic technology can provide the scientific foundation for protection and restoration of grassland ecological environment.

关 键 词：气象条件评价 产草量 载畜量 生态质量监测 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学] S812[天文地球—地质学]