Index System and Influence of Drought in Northwest China  

作　　者：Liu Yinge Wen Yanjun 

机构地区：[1]Key Lab of Disaster Monitoring and Mechanism Simulating of Shaanxi Province, Baoji University of Arts ＆ Sciences, Baoji Shaanxi 721013, China

出　　处：《Chinese Journal of Population,Resources and Environment》2008年第3期56-62,共7页中国人口·资源与环境（英文版）

基　　金：National Society Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 08BZZ031); National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40471053, Grant No. 40501077);Key Lab Foundation of Shaanxi (Grant No. 04JS39);Key Foundation of Baoji University of Arts & Sciences (Grant No.ZK06111).

摘　　要：In this paper, the index systems of the agricultural drought and decrease percentage of grain crop are established. The trend and influence of drought in the region is analyzed based on the 50 years （1951-2000） statistical data of precipitation and 52 years （1951 2002） agricultural drought of the region, including tire provinces： Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Xinjiang. The result shows that the drought disaster is increasing and the most serious were in the 1970s and 1990s, and main agricultural drought is a great disaster incident. The regression prediction equation of drought and flood grades and agricultural drought areas grades are set up by the harmonic wave method, and forecasting the drought will lighten during the first ten years of the 21st century.In this paper, the index systems of the agricultura drought and decrease percentage of grain crop are established. Th trend and influence of drought in the region is analyzed based o the 50 years (1951-2000) statistical data of precipitation and 5 years (1951–2002) agricultural drought of the region, includin five provinces: Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Xinjiang The result shows that the drought disaster is increasing and th most serious were in the 1970s and 1990s, and main agricultura drought is a great disaster incident. The regression prediction equa tion of drought and flood grades and agricultural drought area grades are set up by the harmonic wave method, and forecastin the drought will lighten during the first ten years of the 21s century.

关 键 词：DROUGHT index system influence analysis trend prediction 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P46