无资料小流域设计洪水不确定性研究  

Estimating Uncertainty in Design Flood for Ungauged Catchments

作　　者：许月萍[1] 童杨斌[1] 楼章华[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建工学院水文水资源研究所,浙江杭州310027

出　　处：《中山大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第6期61-65,69,共6页Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Sunyatseni

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(Y507071);浙江省水利厅项目(N20070066)

摘　　要：针对小流域降雨资料不足甚至无降雨资料的情况,研究了在不同雨型(主雨位偏前、偏中和偏后)下,使用2种暴雨频率计算方法(地区综合法和L-矩法),计算不同重现期设计暴雨和设计洪水的不确定性。结果表明L-矩法的计算结果不确定性小,更稳定,而地区综合法偏保守;不同雨型下的设计洪峰和洪水历时变化较小,但峰现时间相差较大,会极大地影响调洪结果。Estimating design flood in ungauged catchments is difficult due to data scarcity. Two methods, regional synthetic method and L-moment, are used to calculate design rainfall depths, and thus to estimate design flood. Also, three different 24-hour-hyetographs are considered, with front-, mid-, back- located peak rainfall. A small ungauged catchment in Zhejiang Province is used as an example here and results show that the regional synthetic method is more conservative than L-moment and contains more uncertainty. Delicate peak change discharge for different hyetographs can be observed while peak times are different, which is believed to affect reservoir routing significantly.

关 键 词：无资料地区 设计暴雨/洪水 L-矩法 雨型 不确定性 

分 类 号：TV122.5[水利工程—水文学及水资源]