建筑节能对建筑能耗的直接经济和环境影响测算模型及其实证分析  

Evaluate Model of Direct Economic and Environmental Impacts of Building Energy Efficiency on Building Energy Consumption and Its Demonstration

作　　者：刘秀丽[1] 汪寿阳[1] 杨翠红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院系统所,北京100190

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2008年第6期100-104,共5页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：住房和城乡建设部课题"建筑节能标准对国民经济和社会发展影响的模型测算";国家自然科学基金(70701034);中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院院长科研基金;中国科学院知识创新工程重大项目(KSCX1-YW-09-04)资助

摘　　要：当前节能减排是我国各级政府的主要工作任务。"十一五"建筑节能目标占社会总节能目标的21%,建筑节能是我国节能工作的重要内容。本研究采用数量经济方法,建立建筑节能对建筑能耗的直接经济和环境影响测算模型。在合理的情景假定下,应用该模型测算,得出结论:"十一五"建筑节能目标的各项分解任务和总的节能任务可在3年内完成。3年中每年的建筑节能量对"十一五"期间平均每年节能任务的贡献率分别是17.28%,34.55%,51.83%。3年中每年因建筑节能而减少的主要污染物的排放量对"十一五"期间平均每年减排任务的贡献率分别是76%,152%和228%。最后提出既有建筑节能改造的节能任务可以适当增加的政策建议。At present, an important task for Chinese governments at all levels is to save energy and reduce pollutant emissions. The task of building energy efficiency accounts for 21% of the total energy-saving task in the 11th Five Year Plan. This paper established a quantitative economics model to evaluate the direct economic and environmental impact of building energy efficiency on building energy consumption. Under a reasonable scenario, by using evaluate model, and analyzing the results, we drew the conclusions that the total building energy efficiency task and its components in the llth Five Year Plan could be achieved in three years. The contribution rate of the building energy efficiency of every year in the three years to the average annual energy-saving tasks in the llth Five Year Plan is 17.28%, 34.55% and 51.83% respectively. And the contribution rate of the reduced major pollutant emissions by building energy efficiency every year in the three years to the average annual major pollutant emissions reduced tasks in the llth Five Year Plan is 76%, 152% and 228% respectively. Finally, we put forward a policy suggestion that the energy efficiency task of the reconstruction of existing buildings should be properly added.

关 键 词：建筑节能 经济影响 环境影响 数量经济模型 

分 类 号：TU111.48[建筑科学—建筑理论] F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]