重庆市经济增长与环境污染关系及成因分析  

Relationship Between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution in Chongqing and an Analysis of the Causes for Pollution

作　　者：朱金山[1] 王定勇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学资源环境学院,重庆400716 [2]重庆市农业资源与环境研究重点实验室,重庆400716

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第11期109-113,共5页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：重庆市生态环境保护行动计划资助项目(20020708)

摘　　要：采用环境库兹涅茨曲线模型拟合重庆市1995～2006年间经济增长和工业污染之间的演替轨迹,并应用分解分析法对2002～2006年间工业"三废"排放变化的成因进行了定量分析.结果表明,重庆市工业"三废"排放量和人均GDP之间的关系表现为N型和EKC曲线的左半部分,目前均呈增长态势.将污染物排放变化的成因分为规模效应、结构效应和广义技术效应3类,结果显示,工业结构在调整的初期的确有减轻污染的作用,在结构效应渐趋稳定的条件下,重庆市污染物排放量变化主要是由规模效应和广义技术效应此消彼长竞争的结果.广义技术效应是现阶段重庆市减少污染排放量的最有效途径.In the present study, the trajectory evolution between economic increase and environment pollution in Chongqing from 1995 to 2006 was simulated adopting the Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） model. Quantitative analysis was carried out of the causes for the change in the discharge of gaseous, liquid and solid wastes in 2002 to 2006 with decomposition analysis （DA） method. There were two kinds of relationship model between the discharge amount of industrial pollution and GDP per capita in Chongqing. N model and the left side of EKC curve, both showing an increasing trend at present. The causes for pollution change were decomposed into three kinds, scale effect, structure effect and generalized technical effect （GTE）. At the early stage, industrial restructuring did reduce the discharge of pollutants, but when the scale effect became stabilized, the change in pollutant discharge resulted mainly from the relationship of ＂scale effect＂ vs. ＂generalized technical effect＂ based on a competing. In the present period, the most effective approach to reducing the discharge of pollutant is dependent on GTE.

关 键 词：人均GDP 工业污染物 EKC 分解分析 重庆市 

分 类 号：X820.3[环境科学与工程—环境工程]