水环境风险评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型  

Coupling method of stochastic simulation with triangular fuzzy numbers for water environment risk assessment

作　　者：金菊良[1] 吴开亚[2] 李如忠[3] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学土木与水利工程学院,安徽合肥230009 [2]复旦大学公共管理与公共政策创新基地,上海200433 [3]合肥工业大学资源与环境工程学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《水利学报》2008年第11期1257-1261,1266,共6页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50579009;70771035);安徽省优秀青年科技基金资助项目(08040106830)

摘　　要：探讨了将三角模糊数理论用于描述和处理水环境风险评价系统中的随机性、模糊性,以及资料信息的不完整、不精确性等不确定性特征的具体实现途径。采用Monte Carlo方法模拟三角模糊数,把三角模糊数及其函数之间的运算转化为普通的实数之间的运算,建立了水环境风险评价的随机模拟与三角模糊数耦合模型(SS-TFN)。应用结果表明:SS-TFN通过Monte Carlo方法可得到水环境系统的质量状态变量的大量模拟序列,其计算结果比三角模糊数的截集技术的计算结果更简便、全面和合理;用SS-TFN通过调整水环境系统的质量状态变量的控制参数,可方便地获得水环境风险管理的对策方案。The triangular fuzzy numbers method was used to describe and deal with the randomness and fuzziness of water environment risk assessment. The Monte-Carlo method was applied to simulate the triangular fuzzy numbers for transforming the operations of triangular fuzzy numbers and their functions into the conventional operations of real numbers, and then a method, namely SS-TFN, coupling the stochastic simulation with triangular fuzzy numbers for risk assessment of water environment was established. The application shows that the quality state variable series of water environment system can be simulated using SS-TFN through Monte-Carlo method, so that the computation is more easy and the result is more reasonable than that using cut technique. The schemes for managing water environment risks can be easily obtained by using SS-TFN through adjusting the control parameter expressing the quality state variable of water environment system.

关 键 词：水环境 风险评价 耦合模型 随机模拟 三角模糊数 蒙特卡洛方法 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程]