边坡模糊随机可靠性分析  

Fuzzy stochastic reliability analysis of slopes

作　　者：吕玺琳[1,2] 钱建固[1,2] 吕龙[3] 吕恩琳[4] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学岩土与地下工程教育部重点实验室,上海200092 [2]同济大学地下建筑与工程系,上海200092 [3]西南交通大学蛾眉校区土木工程系,四川峨眉山614202 [4]重庆大学工程力学系,重庆400030

出　　处：《岩土力学》2008年第12期3437-3442,共6页Rock and Soil Mechanics

摘　　要：为合理描述边坡稳定性分析中存在的多种不确定性,应同时考虑随机和模糊两种因素带来的影响。用L-R型模糊数描述随机变量的均值和方差,建立了模糊随机可靠性分析模型。为简化计算,将模糊数通过分解定理,取一系列λ截集,转换为一系列区间数进行计算。在一次二阶矩法基础上,推导了基于瑞典条分法及毕肖普法计算模糊随机可靠度的具体公式。算例表明,该法是合理实用的。In order to describe various uncertainties in slope stability analysis reasonably, stochastic and fuzzy factors should be considered simultaneously. Using L-R type fuzzy numbers to describe the mean values and variances of stochastic numbers, a novel fuzzy stochastic model for reliability analysis is proposed. For simplicity, the fuzzy stochastic reliability is calculated by transforming fuzzy numbers into a series of interval numbers via 2 cut set theory. Based on the First-order Second-moment Method （FOSM）, the fuzzy stochastic model is employed to Sweden Method and Bishop Method to calculate the fuzzy reliability factors of slope. It is demonstrated through examples that the proposed model is theoretically innovative and practically useful.

关 键 词：边坡 模糊随机可靠度 λ截集 一次二阶矩法 区间数 

分 类 号：TU443[建筑科学—岩土工程]