云推理模型在灌区中长期灌溉制度制定中的应用  

Application of cloud reasoning model in making of the medium and long term irrigation schedule in irrigation area

作　　者：陈晓楠[1] 段春青[2] 邱林[3] 黄强[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安理工大学水利水电学院,西安710048 [2]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [3]华北水利水电学院水利学院,郑州450011

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2008年第11期115-121,共7页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：河南省高校创新人才培养工程项目(HNCX2003-17)

摘　　要：针对目前中长期灌溉制度制定方法的不足,提出了基于降水过程和作物需水过程的年型判别模型,并以此为基础,利用云推理模型预测出未来年份的年型,在与其年型相近的历史年份中选出最合适的,将该年的灌溉制度应用于未来年.实例表明:基于来水和需水过程的年型判别模型更加符合实际,而云推理模型很擅长从大量数据中挖掘出不确定性知识,两者结合选择出的中长期灌溉制度能够更好的指导生产实践,有较高的推广应用价值.In order to make up for the deficit of making methods of the medium and long term irrigation schedule, the judgment model of annual precipitation pattern based on matching extent of precipitation and evapotranspiration procedures is put forward. Precipitation pattern is forecasted by cloud reasoning and the corresponding historical year whose irrigation schedule is applied into forecasted year is chosen. Sample indicates that the new judgment model accord with practice better and prediction model based cloud reasoning can mine uncertain knowledge from lots of data greatly. The method suggested by this paper is efficient to make medium and long irrigation schedule in irrigation area.

关 键 词：云理论 云推理 灌溉制度 降水年型 

分 类 号：S274.1[农业科学—农业水土工程]