中国城市化率与住宅销售量的关系研究  

An Empirical Study on Impacts of Urbanization Ratio on Housing Sales in China

作　　者：向为民[1,2] 任宏[1] 刘新[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学建设管理与房地产学院,重庆400044 [2]重庆工学院经济与贸易学院,重庆400050

出　　处：《建筑经济》2008年第12期40-43,共4页Construction Economy

摘　　要：利用计量经济软件,对我国1987～2003年间城市化率和住宅销售量作了实证研究。研究表明,二者存在长期协整关系,但不具有因果关系;住宅销售量对城市化率微小变动的响应是正向的;住宅销售量预测显示,短期内住宅销售量是最主要的贡献因素。With the help of the Eview5.0, the empirical study on the urbanization ratio and housing sales volume of China during 1987-2006 has been conducted. The study shows that there exists a long-term co-integration relationship rather than the casual relationship between the urbanization ratio and the housing sales volume. The study also shows that the housing sales volume have the positive impact on the urbanization ratio, in which the short-term housing sales volume play a major role

关 键 词：城市化率 住宅销售量 协整分析 误差纠正模型 

分 类 号：F407.9[经济管理—产业经济]