基于小波分析的粮食产量对气候变化的响应研究——以西藏自治区为例  

Research on Response of Grain Output to Climate Change Based on Wavelet Analysis:A Case Study of Tibet

作　　者：汤小橹[1] 金晓斌[1] 盛莉[2] 周寅康[1] 孙涛[3,4] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093 [2]浙江大学农业遥感与信息技术应用研究所,浙江杭州310029 [3]南京大学地球科学与工程学院,江苏南京210093 [4]西藏大学理学院,西藏拉萨850000

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2008年第6期88-92,共5页Geography and Geo-Information Science

摘　　要：提取1960-2005年西藏自治区粮食单产数据,选取4个典型气象台站,以粮食耕作面积作为加权因子获取综合气象因子数据,采用小波分析方法分析粮食产量对气候变化的响应关系,并预测后期西藏自治区粮食产量的总体趋势。研究发现,西藏粮食单产、气温、光照、降水均具有明显的25 a特征时间尺度的周期性波动,粮食产量对气候变化响应密切,气温偏暖、光照偏长、降水偏多对粮食生产较为有利。趋势预测表明西藏自治区的粮食生产正由相对丰年向相对贫年转化,需引起重视。In this paper, Tibet Autonomous Region was selected as study area, where is one of the ecologically sensitive areas and the promoter region of climate change. And according to the special terrain feature of this area, the climate factors play an im- portant role to the grain output while the human activity relatively affects little. So, the data of four typical meteorological sta- tions in Tibet were gotten, including grain output data and climate （temperature, sunlight, precipitation） data from 1960 to 2005. Giving four stations the corresponding weight by grain farming area, the corresponding data of temperature, sunlight, pre- cipitation for the study area were gotten. The above data were analyzed at multi-- time scales with Morlet-- wavelet technique And then the grain output in response to climate change was analyzed through wavelet coefficients. At last, according to the a- nalysis, the overall trend of grain output of the Tibet Autonomous Region in the next few years was forecasted. The results show that both grain output and the climate factors have a 25 years characteristic time scale and corresponding changes. The grain output has closely correlation with climate change according to the figures of wavelet coefficients. Briefly, warmer temper- ature, longer sunlight and more precipitation in normal bound avail grain produces. Further more, the grain output in Tibet just converts toward the poor years from plentiful years. It needs more attention to ensure the ample grain supply.

关 键 词：粮食产量 气候变化 小波分析 MORLET小波 西藏 

分 类 号：S162.53[农业科学—农业气象学]