气候变化综合评估工具——以密云水库供水项目为例(英文)  

Screening for Climate Change Adaptation——A Case Study of Water Supply of Miyun Reservoir

作　　者：李浩[1,2] 夏军[1] 严茂超[2] 李璐[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2008年第6期1044-1054,共11页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：Nationd Natural Science Foundation of China(40671035);the Special Fund of Ministry of Science & Technology,China(2006DFA21890);the Knowledge Innovation Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-YW-126)

摘　　要：气侯变化的影响导致发展投资的效率和效益产生风险,其潜在的影响会阻碍中国经济和社会的发展。论文开发了一个综合评估工具,旨在评估气候变化对工程项目的影响以及适应性措施的经济效益,并将这一分析框架运用于密云水库水供给项目的评估。结果显示未来气候变化情景下,密云水库水供给量将会受到极大影响。而收益-成本分析和多目标分析结果显示,采用水田改旱地、引滦入潮、污水处理等适应性措施,在技术上和经济上将是可行的。The impacts of climate change have the potential to slow-down economic and human development in China, and therefore present risks to the efficiency and effectiveness of development investments. This paper developed a screening framework to assist with assessment of climate change impacts and integration of adaptation into development projects. By using this framework, the paper has analyzed the potential impact of climate change on water supply of the Miyun reservoir. Then, we have calculated benefit, cost, net benefit of adaptation measures which will enhance and stabilize the water supply of the Miyun reservoir. The result shows that these adaptation measures are effective in economy.

关 键 词：综合评估 气候变化 适应性措施 收益-成本分析 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]