基于统计的短历时降水时间聚解方法研究(英文)  

The Study of Temporal Downscaling method of Short-period PrecipitationBased on Statistical Analysis

作　　者：刘玉[1,2] 夏军[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2008年第6期1088-1098,共11页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：The Knowledge Innovation Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZCX2-YW-126);the Special Fund of Ministry of Science & Technology,China(2006DFA21890);National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.40671035);Key Project of International Cooperation of the Natural Science Foundation of China(50279049)

摘　　要：目前水文预报的降水资料严重不足,特别是无资料地区将很大可能利用卫星遥感反演获取降水信息,但遥感资料提供的降水时间尺度往往较长,难以满足水文预报需求。论文提出了一种基于统计,针对独立降水事件,将长时段降水聚解为短时间尺度降水的方法。研究将此方法应用于史灌河七邻雨量站,分别聚解了七邻6h、3h、2h、1h降水为10min降水。研究表明,该方法计算简单,能保证模拟的总量同实际的完全一致,雨强同实际的基本一致,具有较好的区域适应性。Because of the scarcity of the observed precipitation in hydrological forecast especially for regions without data, remote sensing plays important role in providing precipitation data. However, as the time scale of the precipitation data provided by remote sensing is always very long, it is difficult to meet the demand of hydrological forecast. This paper proposed a precipitation downscaling method in time scale based on the statistical analysis of the independent precipitation event and applied it at the Qilin gauge in Shiguan River to downscale the precipitation of 6 hours, 3 hours, 2 hours and 1 hour into l0 rain. The application results indicate that this method is simple and practical and it can insure that there is not only a consistency between observed and simulated precipitation data, but also between the rainfall intensities.

关 键 词：统计 降水 时间聚解 短历时降水 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]