新疆北部气候变化及其对水资源的影响分析  

Climate change and its impact on water resources in North Xinjiang

作　　者：曹丽青[1,2] 林振山[1] 葛朝霞[2] 薛梅[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210046 [2]河海大学水文与水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2008年第6期28-30,35,共4页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20060139010)

摘　　要：利用新疆北部地区5个气象站1951～2006年月平均气温及月降水总量资料,用高桥浩一郎公式计算了新疆北部地区区域平均蒸发量及水资源总量。分析了近56年来新疆北部地区气候变化及水资源变化趋势,以及气候变化对水资源的影响。通过分析初步得出结论：①新疆北部地区气温从20世纪60年代以来基本上呈上升趋势,90年代以来气温明显高于平均值,为正距平;新疆北部地区降水自20世纪80年代初期开始出现增加趋势,90年代以后,降水持续增加,并且高于平均值;60年代中期至80年代末期,蒸发比平均值偏少,自80年代末期以来蒸发高于平均值,为高值期。②水资源总量自20世纪80年代初期至今呈增加趋势,90年代以来呈现出正距平。③降水与水资源总量之间存在明显正相关。在此基础上建立了降水变化对水资源总量影响的统计评估模型。The total amounts of evaporation and water resources in North Xinjiang were computed with Gaoqiao＇s equation using monthly rainfall and temperature data at five stations in North Xinjiang from 1951 to 2006. The climate change during the 56-year period and its impact on water resources are analyzed. The results show that： （1） the temperature of North Xinjiang continuously increased from the 1960s onwards and the temperature from the 1990s onwards was higher than the average; the precipitation began to increase from the early 1980s onwards, and was higher than the average from the 1990s onwards; the evaporation was lower than average from the middle 1960s to the late 1980s, and was higher than the average from the late 1980s onwards; （2） the total volume of water resources increased from the early 1980s onwards, and has shown a positive anomaly since the 1990s; and （3） there is a positive correlation between precipitation and the total volume of water resources. On the basis of these results, a statistical and assessment model is established to study the impacts of precipitation on the total volume of water resources.

关 键 词：气候变化 水资源 新疆北部 

分 类 号：P461[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]