应用灰色摆动模型预测沈阳市肾综合征出血热的流行趋势  

Applying Grey Swing Model to Predict the Incidence Trend of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Shenyang

作　　者：郭立春[1] 吴伟[1] 郭军巧[2] 王萍[3] 周宝森[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,沈阳110001 [2]辽宁省疾病预防控制中心,沈阳110005 [3]沈阳市疾病预防控制中心,沈阳110031

出　　处：《中国医科大学学报》2008年第6期839-842,共4页Journal of China Medical University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(30771860)

摘　　要：目的应用灰色摆动模型预测沈阳市肾综合征出血热(HFRS)发病趋势,以期为相关部门科学合理的制定HFRS防制策略提供理论依据。方法根据1984-2004年沈阳市HFRS发病率数据建立灰色摆动模型GM(1,1,sinω),并作拟合精度检验;采用平均误差率(MER)来评价样本的拟合与预测效果,进而预测沈阳市HFRS发病趋势及下一个发病高峰年。结果GM(1,1,sinω)预测模型为:■ω(1)(k+1)=-158.4104e-0.0444k+162.6622+11.7276sin2kπ/21+5.6982cos2kπ/21,经拟合精度检验,模型拟合精度较好(C=0.3912,P=0.9048),其拟合MER为20.34%,预测值的MER为14.3%,模型的拟合与预测效果均令人满意。利用本模型预测2008～2010年HFRS发病率分别为:3.89/10万、2.65/10万、1.39/10万,发病呈逐年下降趋势,而下一个发病高峰年在2025年,发病率为5.05/10万。结论本模型较好的拟合了沈阳市HFRS发病趋势,预测结果具有一定的参考价值。在未来沈阳市HFRS发病率总体上呈下降趋势,估计在2019年其发病率呈现上升趋势至2025年达到高峰,提示相关部门根据发病趋势相应调整制定有针对性的防制措施。Objective To predict the incidence trend of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shenyang by applying grey swing model, in order to provide a theoretical basis for developing scientific and reasonable strategies of prevention and control of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome （HFRS）. Methods Grey swing model GM （ 1,1, sinto） was established by using the incidence data of HFRS of Shenyang from 1984 to 2004. The sample was fit and forecasted and then the effect of the fitness and the forecast were evaluated. And then the incidence trend and next peak year of HFRS in Sbenyang were predicted. Results The GM （1,1, sinω） forecast model was X ω^（1） （（k＋ 1 ） = - 158.4104e-0.0444k ＋ 162.6622 ＋ 11.7276sin2kπ/21 ＋5.6982cos2kπ/21, in fitting precision test. The model had a better fitting precision （C=0.3912,P =0.9048）. The MER of fitness of GM（ 1,1 ,sinω） model was 20.34% and the MER of forecast of it was 14.3%. The effect of the fitness and forecast of the model were satisfactory. The incidence rates of HFRS in 2008,2009 and 2010 were predicted as 3.89/100 000,2.65/100 000 and 1.39/100 000 respectively with the model. There would be a decrease in the tendency of the incidence rate of HFRS in the future; however,the next incidence peak year would be in 2025 with the incidence rate of 5.05/100 000. Conclusion The model fits well with the incidence tendency of HFRS. The predictive result has a certain reference value. The incidence trend of HFRS is declining as a whole in the future in Sbenyang,but we cannot relax our vigilance,for it is estimated that the incidence rate of HFRS will rise in 2019 and get to the peak in 2025, suggesting that the relevant department should adjust and develop appropriate prevention and control measures according to the epidemic trend .

关 键 词：灰色摆动模型 肾综合征出血热 预测 流行趋势 

分 类 号：R181.2[医药卫生—流行病学]