风电场GM-WEIBULL风速分布组合模型出力预测  

Wind farm output forecast based on combined GM-WEIBULL wind speed distribution models

作　　者：祝贺[1,2] 徐建源[1] 

机构地区：[1]沈阳工业大学电气工程学院,辽宁沈阳110178 [2]东北电力大学建筑工程学院,吉林吉林132012

出　　处：《华东电力》2008年第11期144-146,共3页East China Electric Power

基　　金：中国电机工程学会电力青年科技创新项目(2008-16);吉林省教育厅"十一五"重点科研项目(2007-51)

摘　　要：针对风电出力的随机性及间歇性,采用灰色理论建立灰色预测—威布尔风速分布组合模型,并对威布尔风速分布参数进行了求解,根据实际地形下风电场风速数据准确预测了风电场的风速分布及有效风电出力密度,进而求得了风电场风机出力功率及发电量等重要数据。To deal with the random and intermittent output of wind power, a grey prediction-wind speed Weibull distribution model was established, and Weibull distribution parameters were solved. According to the wind speed data of the wind farm in its actual landform, the wind speed distribution and the effective output density of the wind farm were predicted accurately. The important data such as power output and generation quantity were obtained consequently.

关 键 词：GM-Weibull 风速分布组合模型 风电场 出力预测 

分 类 号：TM753[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]