基于层次分析法的发电企业战略风险模糊评价  

Fuzzy Evaluation of Strategy Risk for Power Generators Based on AHP

作　　者：袁德[1] 徐志勇[1] 纪玉伟[1] 董全学[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学工商管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《现代电力》2008年第5期88-92,共5页Modern Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目商业输电投资研究(70671041);国家自然科学基金资助项目输电项目评价理论(70771039)

摘　　要：市场化环境下由于外部环境的不确定性以及企业战略风险不易量化的特点,发电企业面临着战略选择的风险。研究了如何为发电企业的战略风险进行科学的评估,并指引企业做出战略风险的规避措施。建立了发电企业的多层次战略风险评价指标体系。结合层次分析法与模糊综合评价法,建立了发电企业战略风险评估模型。运用模糊评价方法将战略风险定量化。运用层次分析法可以体现评价人员的主观意向,同时可以反映多指标评价的客观信息。以某发电企业的战略风险评估为例,分析验证了该方法的可行性。Under the market condition, power generators are faced with the risk of strategy choice. The evaluation of strategy risk of generators is studied in order to direct them to make corresponding measures to hedge the risk. The index system of multi-hierarchy strategy risk is established. Combing AHP with fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, a risk assessment model for power generators＇ strategy is esta- bished. The fuzzy evaluation is to quantify the generators＇ strategy risk, while the AHP reflects the subjective thought of decision-makers as well as impersonal information of multi-index assessment. An example is demonstrated to prove the feasibility of the model.

关 键 词：发电企业 战略风险评估 指标体系 层次分析法 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]