高速客运通道上多种运输方式的分担率分析  

Modal split in high-speed passenger transportation corridors

作　　者：杨忠振[1] 王璐[1] 蒋永雷[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《大连海事大学学报》2008年第4期154-157,共4页Journal of Dalian Maritime University

基　　金：教育部博士点基金资助项目(20050151007)

摘　　要：为预测高速铁路建成后高速客运通道上各种运输方式的分担率,优化高速客运的资源配置,面向具有高速出行需求的乘客实施SP(Stated Preference)问卷调查,利用调查数据构建Logit模型,分析高速客运通道上各种运输方式的分担率.针对高速铁路和民航的出行耗时、票价和发班频率等参数进行敏感性分析,得出高速客运需求对两种运输方式各种属性的敏感程度.基于竞合博弈模式提出哈—大高速客运通道上高速客运服务商应该采取的运营策略,以实现该通道上高速客运资源配置的整体优化.Stated preference （SP） survey was carried out on the passengers with high-speed travel demand, and a Logit model was developed with the survey data, which could be used to analyze the modal split of high-speed passenger transportation modes and optimize the resource allocation after the high-speed railway line is opened. The sensitivity analysis was performed on the mode attributes such as travel time, ticket price and service frequency of flight of high-speed railway and civil aviation, thereby the sensitivities of high-speed travel demand to each attribute of the two modes were obtained. Taking the Harbin- Dalian high-speed passenger transportation corridor as an exampie, the operational strategies are summarized based on competition-cooperation game theory, which can optimize the allocation of the transportation resources.

关 键 词：高速铁路 航空运输 分担率 Logk模型 敏感度分析 

分 类 号：U293.13[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]