装备采办项目风险分析中的贝叶斯方法的应用  

The Application of Bayes Method in Risk Analysis of Weapon Acquisition Project

作　　者：杨磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]空军工程大学工程学院,陕西西安710038

出　　处：《长沙航空职业技术学院学报》2008年第4期33-36,共4页Journal of Changsha Aeronautical Vocational and Technical College

摘　　要：贝叶斯方法提供了一种有效的风险预测手段,能够将主观估计与客观估计结合起来,能随着时间、费用、质量要求的信息不断增加而不断进行预测,使得预测更加精确,有利于装备采办项目的动态风险管理。Bayes method provides an effective way to forecast risks, which can combine subjective estimation and objective estimation and forecast risks along with the continuous increase in time, expenses ,and quality demandinformation. In this way, the forecast will be more accurate, which is in favor of dynamic risk management in weapon acquisition project.

关 键 词：贝叶斯方法 武器装备采办 项目管理 风险分析 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]