基于竞争的多代产品扩散模型及其实证研究  

Diffusion model and empirical study of the multi-generations products based on competition

作　　者：张磊[1] 李一军[2] 闫相斌[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学管理学院,徐州221008 [2]哈尔滨工业大学管理学院,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2008年第12期84-92,106,共10页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(70601009);哈尔滨工业大学技术.政策.管理(TPM)国家哲学社会科学创新基地资助

摘　　要：运用扩散理论研究新产品的市场成长规律是市场营销领域重要的研究方法,现有多数研究没有考虑产品扩散进程中存在的不同类别产品间的竞争互补效应和不同世代产品间的竞争替代效应.在Kim模型基础上,提出产品的潜在采用者数量既受到互补类产品已采用者人数的影响,又受到同类别不同世代产品相对价格的影响,建立了竞争多代产品扩散模型.以中国通信产品为例进行实证检验,发现在历史扩散数据较少的情形下,模型的拟合度较高,参数估算结果更加真实地反映了通信产品市场扩散的现状,预测精度高于其它模型,说明所建立的竞争环境下多世代扩散模型是有效的.Diffusion theory which deals with the market growth rule governing new products, is an important research method in the field of marketing. The current research has do done little on the two subjects below： One is the competitively supplementary effect on products of different category in the process of product spread, and the other is the competitively substitution effect on products of different generations. In view of Kim model, this paper argues that the number of potential adopters of a product is influenced by beth the number of adopters of different-category products, and by the relative prices of different-generation products of the same category as well, thereafter, sets up a multi-generation product diffusion model. An empirical study is made on telecommunication products. The findings reveal that given insufficient historical data related to product spread, the model has a perfect fitness, and the parameter estimate results tell a good story about the whole picture of telecommunication products spread. The model has done better than other models in terms of forecasts precision. As such, we can conclude that the multi-generation product diffusion model under competitive environment is effective.

关 键 词：市场营销 产品扩散 扩散模型 通信产品 

分 类 号：F713.0[经济管理—产业经济]