基于模糊理论的尾矿库溃坝风险评价模型研究  

Research on the evaluation model of dam failing risk of tailing reservoir based on fuzzy theory

作　　者：李全明[1] 陈仙[2] 王云海[1] 王庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国安全生产科学研究院,北京100029 [2]首都经济贸易大学,北京100026

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2008年第6期57-61,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家“十一五”科技支撑计划课题(编号:2006BAK04B01-1、2006BAK04A09-01);国家自然科学基金项目(编号:50709031);中国安科院基本科研业务费专项资金项目(编号:2007JBKY02);清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室开放基金项目(编号:SKLHSE-2007-C-01)

摘　　要：经调查统计,我国尾矿库存在数量多、规模小、安全度水平低及较多中小尾矿库未经过正规设计等特点,并且绝大多数尾矿库下游为生活区、工矿企业或重要城镇等,因此加强尾矿库风险管理,建立尾矿库溃坝风险评价模型,对于减少和防止尾矿库溃坝事故的发生,确保尾矿库的安全运行,使之更好地为矿山安全生产服务,为国民经济健康持续快速发展服务等方面都具有重要意义。尾矿库工程的稳定性受到众多因素的影响,很多因素既难以确定,又难以定量估计,既有随机性,又有模糊性,具有灰色系统的特性,因此采用模糊评判方法对尾矿库溃坝风险进行分析具有一定的合理性。本文对多层模糊模式识别评价模型在尾矿库溃坝风险评价中的应用进行了研究,提出了基于模糊理论的尾矿库风险评价模型,开发了尾矿库溃坝风险评价软件。上述工作对于评估尾矿库溃坝风险、减少尾矿库溃坝事故的发生具有重要意义。As a result of investigation and statistics, tailing ponds in China were characterized by large quantity, small capacity, low safety level as well as failure of many tailing ponds to be subject to formal design. To make things worse, domestic areas, industrial and mining enterprises or major cities and towns, etc. Were located downstream most of these tailing ponds. Therefore, it is imperative to strength risk management of the tailing ponds and establish tailing dam failing risk index system and risk evaluation model, which will play a significant role in reducing and preventing the occurrence of tailing dam failing accident, ensuring safe operation of the tailing ponds, making them to better serve safe production of the mines as well as healthy, steady and rapid development of the national economy, etc. Many factors affect the steadiness of tailing reservoir engineering, some of which are not only difficult to confirm, but also difficult to estimate the fixed quantity, at random and dim, so it is reasonable to analyze the risk evaluation of tailing reservoir failing by method fuzzy evaluation. This article made a research on mul-arranging fuzzy model in the risk evaluation of tailing reservoir failing, the model of risk evaluation of tailing reservoir based on fuzzy theory was presented, then the software of the model of risk evaluation of tailing reservoir was developed. These works are great significance to evaluate the risk of tailing dam failing and reduce the accident of tailing dam failing.

关 键 词：尾矿库 风险评价 模糊理论 溃坝风险评价模型 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]