基于风险场的评价理论研究  

The research of assessment theory based on risk field partI. theory models

作　　者：黄沿波[1] 李剑峰[2] 张斌[2] 梁栋[1] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学工学院安全工程研究中心,广州510006 [2]北京市劳动保护科学研究所,北京100054

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2008年第6期101-105,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：“十一五”科技支撑计划课题(编号:200603746006);广东省安监局安全专项资金项目(编号:77-2)

摘　　要：目前,已经有多种方法可以用于石油化工企业的定量风险评价,但是这些方法多数是基于二维的风险分析,不能满足当今社会日趋增长的三维空间的安全管理和风险评价要求,因此,提出了三维的风险场的评价理论,从三维风险等值面来考察风险的分布和风险变化率。该方法采用场论的基本知识,把风险场看作数量场,对不同事故的个人风险及其风险梯度进行叠加,得到个人风险及其变化率。针对同一个危险源产生的爆炸、火灾和中毒三种风险属性,给出了其叠加后的个人风险和个人风险变化率公式,在相应的坐标系中并对二维和三维个人风险的不同的空间分布进行了比较。该方法能够清晰、直观、全面地表示出个人风险场的分布情况,同时能够了解到多个风险共同作用下的风险变化情况。Many methods of risk assessment have been used to assess quantitatively the risks in petroleum, chemical and process industries, but these methods were mainly based on planar （2D） risks, and could not satisfy the requirements of safety management and risk assessment on increasing three dimensions （3D） spaces. So, a assessment theory on 3D risk field was brought out. This theory used equivalence surfaces of 3D to research the risk distribution and risk variable rate. It was based on field theory, took the risk field as quantity field, added the individual risks of different accidences and their grads, and obtained the individual risks and their risk variable rate. It presented the relative adding equations about the explosion, fire and toxicosis, and compared the 3D with 2D distribution figures of individual risks in their coordinates. This method can display the distribution of individual risk distinctly, straightly and integrally, and can know the risk variety in multiple risks affection together.

关 键 词：风险场 风险梯度 个人风险 个人风险变化率 

分 类 号：X913.1[环境科学与工程—安全科学]