中国北方荒漠区降水稳定性与趋势分析  

Analysis of the precipitation stability and variety trend in the desert region of northern China

作　　者：徐利岗[1,2,3] 周宏飞[4,3] 李彦[4,3] 李晖[4,3] 汤英[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065 [2]宁夏水利科学研究所,宁夏银川750021 [3]阜康荒漠生态系统国家野外观测研究站,新疆阜康831505 [4]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011

出　　处：《水科学进展》2008年第6期792-799,共8页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：中国科学院重要方向性项目(KZCX2-YW-431);国家自然科学基金资助项目(40725002);“十一五”国家科技支撑计划资助项目(2007BAC17802)~~

摘　　要：根据连续估计初始样本值及其所对应的自由度进行多步迭代的估计方法,选择中国北方荒漠区35个站点1951-2005年月降水资料,运用水文序列轮次分析、游程理论和极差理论探讨了降水的稳定性;从降水集度、年际变差等方面用Mann-Kendall秩次相关法剖析了北方荒漠化地区降水在时间、空间上变化趋势。结果表明:各地单独丰水年的概率要高于单独枯水年,而发生连枯年的概率则高于连丰年;极端干旱区和干旱区的降水有增加趋势的地区概率分别为83%和70%,而半干旱地区降水有明显减少趋势的概率为58%。With the run theory, the displacement and extremum deviation theory, the stability of precipitation are analyzed by the monthly precipitation data from 35 sites in the desert region of northern China during 1951 - 2005. Based on the Mann- Kendall rank statistic method and 2-parameter-rainfall concentration index and interarmual rainfall variability, the characteristics of preeipitation in the temporal and spatial variety are analyzed. Results indieate that： （ 1 ） In every where, the probability of high-flow year alone is higher than that of low-flow year alone, and the probability of low-flow year in succession is higher than that of high-flow year in succession, and （2） in extreme arid regions and arid regions, such as Xinjiang, Qinhai and Gansu, the probability of precipitation increase 83 % and 70 % respectively. On the contrary, in semi-arid regions, like Inn Mongolia, the probability of precipitation decreases by 58 %.

关 键 词：北方荒漠区 降水 Mann-Kendall秩统计法 时空变异性 稳定性 变化趋势 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]