气候变化对密云水库水资源的影响及其适应性管理对策  

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resource of Miyun Reservoir and Adaptation Managements

作　　者：夏军[1] 李璐[1,2] 严茂超[1] 褚健婷[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]中国科学院研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2008年第6期319-323,共5页Climate Change Research

基　　金：中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-126);科技部中澳合作项目(2006DFA21890);国家自然科学基金项目(40671035)资助;2007年国家发展和改革委员会气候办和英国国际开发署(DFID)合作项目的支持

摘　　要：密云水库近30 a入库水资源量日益减少,严重影响城市供水和可持续发展,其中气候变化对水资源的影响成为最受关注的问题之一。以海河流域密云水库的水资源供应为例,研究了气候变化对入库水资源的影响。结果表明:除SRES A2情景下在2025年入库流量减少外,其他情景均表现为入库流量增加。对入库流量增加的情景,采用"零调整方案",即不采取调整措施是可以的,但由于未来北京水资源压力较大,有必要采取一些综合对策。通过多目标条件分析,为解决北京的饮用水供应问题,建议采用开源(跨河流调水)、节流(水田改旱地)及污水治理三管齐下的方案。A screening framework for assessing impacts of climate change on water resource of Miyun reservoir is briefly introduced. It is a systematic step-by-step scheme for assessing the impact of climate change and its adaptation responses. The assessment shows that water inflow to Miyun reservoir has been decreasing in recent years due to rainfall change and human activities. Climate change is projected to increase the reservoir＇s inflow in the long term （2050）, but the inflow may continue to decline in the medium term （2025） under the SRES A2 scenario, necessitating adaptation measures to assure water supply to Beijing. Suggested comprehensive measures for adaptation management include： 1） converting paddy fields in the upper reaches to rain-fed farming land, with compensation paid to farmers; 2） constructing a water diversion channel of 160 km from the Luanhe River to the Chaohe River, which feeds Miyun reservoir; 3） constructing sewage treatment plants to increase effluent re-use.

关 键 词：气候变化影响 密云水库 水资源 适应性管理 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]