未来我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害变化的数值模拟  

Simulation of Changes in Cold Events in Southern China Under Global Warming

作　　者：宋瑞艳[1,2,3] 高学杰[2] 石英[2] 张冬峰[2,4] 张喜娃 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081 [2]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081 [3]天津市气象局,天津300074 [4]山西省气象局,太原030002

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2008年第6期352-356,共5页Climate Change Research

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF2008-16);国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2006CB400506)资助

摘　　要：使用高分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3),单向嵌套一个全球模式,对未来我国南方冰雪灾害在IPCCSRES A2情景下的变化进行了数值模拟。结果表明:未来南方地区低温日数整体将减少,但在广东和广西北部部分地区连续低温日数有增加现象;降雪日数和连续降雪日数会减少,但在江西等地降雪量将有所增加,同时强降雪事件在江西等地将增多,引起地面最大积雪深度和最大持续积雪日数的增加;湖南和贵州东部地区冻雨日数会减少,而在青藏高原东麓等地冻雨日数会增加。Multi-decadal climate change simulations have been conducted over China using a regional climate model （the ICTP RegCM3） under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. This paper focuses on future changes in cold events in southern China. The results show that the climate warming will lead to generally less cold days over the study region, but slightly increased consecutive cold days in some local areas of northern parts of Guangdong and Guangxi; and to less snow days and consecutive snow days, but increased intensity of snow events and consequently wider snow coverage over Jiangxi Province and parts of other southern provinces. The day number of ice rain will decrease in Hunan Province and the eastern part of Guizhou Province, while increase around the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau.

关 键 词：区域气候模式 冷事件 中国南方 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]