基于GIS空间分析的台风路径预测  

Typhoon track forecasting based on GIS spatial analyses

作　　者：邹亮[1] 任爱珠[1] 徐峰[1] 张新[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学土木工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《清华大学学报（自然科学版）》2008年第12期2036-2040,共5页Journal of Tsinghua University(Science and Technology)

基　　金：国家"十一五"科技支撑计划项目(2006BAK01A02)

摘　　要：建立了一种利用历史数据进行台风路径预测的模型。该模型应用关键点相似度法，利用地理信息系统（GIS）的空间分析功能，建立当前实测台风中心位置的缓冲区，从历史台风数据库中搜索路径相似的台风，确定各条路径的相似度；再依据相似度确定台风的相似权重，进行24-48h的台风路径趋势的快速预测；根据每6h的预测结果对预测结果进行修正。实例研究表明，24h预测误差小于140km，48h预测误差小于240km。A model was developed based on the similarities of key points on typhoon tracks to forecast typhoon tracks using historical data. The centers of active typhoons were compared with historical records of similar typhoons in a geodatabase using Geographic Information System （GIS） spat~.al analyses. The typhoon tracks were weighted based on their similarity. The typhoon center positions in 24 h or 48 h were then quickly forecasted based the similarity weights. The result was updated by forecasts every 6 h. The mean error of the model is less than 140 km for 24 h forecasts and less than 240 km for 48 h forecasts.

关 键 词：台风 路径预测 地理信息系统(GIS) 相似度 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]