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机构地区:[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,新疆乌鲁木齐830011
出 处:《西北地震学报》2008年第4期385-391,共7页Northwestern Seismological Journal
基 金:国家科技支撑计划项目(2006BAC01B03-04-02)
摘 要:应用地震活动统计量βn定量分析了新疆天山地震带不同分区中小地震活动状态以及中强地震前中小地震活动速率的异常特征,并提取了中强震前卢。值的中期预测指标。结果表明,当βn值满足各研究区的异常指标时,北天山和南天山东段1年左右可能发生5~6级地震;巴楚-阿图什和喀什-乌恰地区1年左右可能发生5.5—7.0级的地震。从发震时间来看,乌鲁木齐、乌苏-石河子和喀什-乌恰地区中强地震基本发生在βn值异常结束后;拜城-库车地区和巴楚-阿图什地区部分中强震发生在届。值处于异常状态过程中。各研究区中强震前1年左右中小地震活动具有区域特征:乌鲁木齐地区呈现增强;乌苏-石河子地区和喀什-乌恰地区既有增强也有平静;巴楚-阿图什地区以平静为主;南天山东段和阿克苏-巴楚地区异常特征不明显。The abnormal characters of seismic active state and rate for small-medium earthquakes before mederate-strong earthquakes in different regions of Tianshan seismic belt, in Xinjiang region, with the seismicity statistical parameter valueβn are analyzed quantatively, and the middle-term prediction index ofβn values before mederate-strong earthquake are refined. The result shows that whenβn value is satis- fied with abnormal index in different region, there may occur Ms5 - 6 earthquake within about one year in the northern Tianshan mountain and the east part of southern Tianshan mountain ; Ms5. 5 - 7.0 earth- quake within about one year in the Bachu--Atushi region and Kashi--Wuqia region. In the aspect of earthquake occurring time, mederate-strong earthquakes in Urumqi, Wusu--Shihezi and KashimWuqia region occur nearly afterβn value anomaly ends ; some mederate-strong earthquakes in BaichenmKuche and Bachu-Atushi occur whenβn value is in the state of anomaly. Small-medium earthquakes in different regions about one year before mederate-strong earthquake have regional character: small-medium earthquake activity increases in Urumqi region; increases and quiescent in the Wusu--Shihezi and Kashi--Wuqia region;quiescent in the Bachu--Atushi region; but are not obvious in the east of southern Tianshan and Akesu--Bachu region.
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