基于专家可信度的不确定型AHP方法及其应用  

The method of Uncertain AHP Based on Expert Credibilityand Its Application

作　　者：潘仁飞[1] 邹乐乐[2] 侯运炳[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)资源与安全工程学院,北京100083 [2]中国科学院科技政策与管理科学研究所,北京100190

出　　处：《系统工程》2008年第10期101-106,共6页Systems Engineering

摘　　要：在一个基于不确定型AHP方法的群决策过程中,现有文献对专家决策可信度的研究,亦即专家可信度的衡量,都是采取简单的算术平均法或加权平均法,是一种静态的权重赋权法,没有体现出专家间的动态差异性。本文在综合运用可信度理论和不确定型AHP有关理论的基础上,提出了基于不确定型判断矩阵相似性和差异性的专家可信度的不确定型AHP方法。本文研究中,结合权重的主客观理论,得出不确定型AHP的最终权重,并将其应用到地基工程质量风险评价中,取得了比较理想的评判结果。In the existing studies on expert credibility in group decision-making processes based on uncertain AHP, simple arithmetic or weighted average method is adopted, both of which are static weight evaluation measures and can＇t reflect the dynamic differences in experts＇ iudgments. Based on the similarity and dissimilarity of uncertain judgment matrix,this paper proposes a method of uncertain AHP measuring expert credibility. By combining the objective and subjective weighting theory, we obtain an integrated dynamic weighting in uncertain AHP, which has been applied to a case in risk assessment of ground engineering quality and has produced a relatively ideal judgment results.

关 键 词：不确定型AHP 区间数判断矩阵 专家可信度 风险评价 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]