基于结构方程的节假日居民出行和活动关联性建模分析  

Modeling Correlation of Holiday Trips and Activities Based on Structural Equation Model

作　　者：李霞[1] 邵春福[1] 孙壮志[2] 姚广铮[2] 董春娇[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044 [2]北京交通发展研究中心,北京100055

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2008年第6期91-95,共5页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家重点基础研究计划项目(2006CB705500)

摘　　要：基于结构方程模型,利用现有北京市黄金周出行调查资料,选取影响居民节假日活动和出行行为的8个影响因素作为结构模型的外生变量;以黄金周出行中维持性活动和消遣性活动的3个特征指标——活动持续时间、活动次数、出行时间共6个活动特征指标为结构方程的内生变量,同时以个体为分析单位,考虑个人和家庭的社会经济属性,建立各种活动产生模型,活动持续时间模型以及为从事各种活动的出行时间结构方程模型.分析外生变量对内生变量的影响,以及内生变量彼此之间的复杂关系.探讨节假日居民从事各种活动和出行之间的相互影响关系,以及居民的社会经济属性对其从事的活动和出行产生的影响.Based on the Structural Equation Modeling theory and holiday travel behavior survey of Beijing, the structural equation model of activity and travel time was established, with the individual socio-economic characteristics being taken into account. Eight factors were first chosen as exogenous variables for the structural equation model; Meanwhile, six activity characteristic indexes were selected as endogenous variables including activity duration time, activity times and travel time in two kinds of activity, hereby maintenance activity and discretionary activity respectively. Then, this paper attempted to discuss the correlation of all types of activities and holiday travel behavior through analyzing not only the influence of individual socio-economics on activity and travel behavior but also the correlation of holiday trips and activities. Consequently, this model was verified and conclusions were given according to the results.

关 键 词：结构方程 潜变量 节假日出行 活动 

分 类 号：U491.14[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]