我国外汇储备增加的通货膨胀效应实证研究——兼评外汇冲销政策的有效性  

Empirical Research on China's Inflation Effect from Foreign Exchange Reserve's Increase

作　　者：陈舒薇[1] 胡海鸥[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院金融系,上海200030

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2009年第1期214-218,共5页Science Technology and Engineering

摘　　要：在对外汇储备增加的通货膨胀效应进行理论分析和作用机制描述的基础上,以2002年1月到2008年6月的月度数据为样本,运用计量模型对二者之间的影响程度作了实证分析,得出的结论是:外汇储备与通货膨胀指标——消费物价指数CPI之间存在协整关系,外汇储备是CPI的Granger原因,但是由于外汇冲销政策的有力实施,对CPI的传导作用并不显著。This essay mainly studies on the inflation effect of sharp increase on foreign exchange reserve from both theoretic and functional analysis. The empirical research＇s month data ranges from January 2002 to June 2008 and use econometric model to demonstrate the relation between inflation rate and foreign exchange reserve. The conclusion is that there is a co-integration between these two variables; foreign exchange reserve is the granger cause of inflation. But as the effective carry out of official intervention in the foreign exchange market, the transmission effect is not so obvious.

关 键 词：外汇储备 货币供给量 通货膨胀 GRANGER检验 外汇冲销 

分 类 号：F830.92[经济管理—金融学]