天津市花粉预报服务效益评估探讨  

Discussion on the Benefit Evaluation of Pollen Forecast Service in Tianjin

作　　者：白玉荣[1] 吴振铃 刘彬贤[1] 刘桂莲[2] 

机构地区：[1]天津市气象台,天津300074 [2]天津市气象科技服务中心,天津300074

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2008年第33期14687-14689,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：中国气象局新技术推广项目(GMATG2008M29)

摘　　要：[目的]为了推进花粉预报的开展,预防花粉过敏性疾病的发生,提高人民健康水平,降低医疗费用。[方法]通过召开医学专家座谈会及进行患者问卷调查,从预报准确率、预报时效、信息覆盖率、患者预防能力4个方面对花粉预报的社会效益进行初步评估。[结果]对花粉预报有需求的占88%,满意和较满意的占75%,社会效益比较显著。[结论]开展花粉预报是社会发展的需要,是预防花粉过敏性疾病的有效措施之一。[Objective] The research aimed to promote the developraent of pollen forecast,prevent the incidence of pollen allergic disease,improve the health level of people and decrease the medical expenditure. [Method] Through holding the symposium of medical experts and making questionnaire for patients, the social benefits of pollen forecast were preliminarily evaluated from 4 aspects of forecast accuracy, forecast efficiency, information coverage ratio and the prevention ability of patients. [Result] Pollen forecast was in demand for 88% of respondents and 75% of them were satisfied with pollen forecast. The social kenefits were more significant. [Conclusion] The pollen forecast was the detnand of soeial development mid it was one of effective measures for preventing the allergic disease of pollen.

关 键 词：花粉浓度 过敏性疾病 预报服务 效益评估 

分 类 号：S165.21[农业科学—农业气象学]