河北省近50年气候变化对地表径流量的影响  

Impact of Climatic Change on Surface Runoff in Hebei Province in the Last 50 Years

作　　者：邵爱军[1] 左丽琼[1] 阮新[2] 吴烨[1] 魏谨[1] 

机构地区：[1]石家庄经济学院,河北石家庄050031 [2]河北省气候中心,河北石家庄050021

出　　处：《水土保持学报》2008年第6期19-24,共6页Journal of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40672163)

摘　　要：利用河北省境内68个气象站、105处水文站1956—2000年近50年的气象数据、地表水资源评价数据，分析了气象要素和径流量的变化规律。20世纪60年代以来，河北省年平均气温逐渐上升，90年代比60年代升高0．9℃。从年代上看，河北省年平均水面蒸发量总体上呈现下降趋势，平均每10年下降62mm。全省多年平均降水量，随年代逐渐减少，90年代比50年代减少60mm。全省多年平均地表径流量为120．2×10^8m^3，从20世纪50年代至90年代呈逐渐减少的趋势，平均每10年减少19．4×10^8m^3。地表径流量随降水量的减少而减少，随气温的升高而下降，用回归方法建立的径流量与气象要素之间的模型为对数型非线性模型。通过灵敏度分析，降水量变化对径流量的影响明显大于气温、水面蒸发量变化对径流量的影响。根据未来气候变化情景对径流量的预测，2030年全省地表径流量为114．36×10^8m^3～138．24×10^8m^3；2050年为106．8×10^8m^3～137．8×10^8m^3。According to the data of climate and runoff from 68 weather stations and 105 hydrologic stations in Hebei province from 1956 to 2000, the change of climatic essential factors and runoff are analyzed. Since the 1960s, the average annual temperature in Hebei province has been increasing gradually. Compared with the 1960s, the temperature in the 1990s has risen 0. 9℃. From the age, the average annual evaporation as a whole in Hebei province has appeared a tendency to decline. And it descends 62 mm every ten years on average. The average year＇s precipitation has gradually diminished by the years. Compared with the 1950s, the precipitation in the 1990s has decreased 60 mm. The average years runoff of the whole province, which dedines 19.4× 10^8m^3 every ten years on average, emerging a gradually decreasing trend from the 1950s to the 1990s, is 120.2×10^8m^3. With the decrease of the precipitation and the rise of the temperature, the runoff declines. The models of climatic essential factors and the runoff established by utilizing the multiple regression analysis are logarithmic non-linear functions. Obviously, the impact of precipitation variety on the runoff is more than the effect of the temperature or the evaporation change on the runoff by the sensitivity analysis. According to the prediction of the future climatic change with regard to the runoff, the whole province runoff will alter from 114. 36× 10^8m^3 to 138. 24 ×10^8m^3 in 2030. Similarly, the runoff will vary from 106.8 ×10^8m^3 to 137.8 ×10^8m^3 in 2050.

关 键 词：河北省 气候变化 地表径流量 灵敏度分析 

分 类 号：TV211.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P339[天文地球—水文科学]