江苏省夏季最高温度定量预报方法  

Quantitative Forecast Methods of Highest Temperature in Summer in Jiangsu

作　　者：刘梅[1] 濮梅娟[1] 高苹[1] 沈树勤[1] 孙燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏省气象台,南京210008

出　　处：《气象科技》2008年第6期728-733,共6页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局研究型业务项目(YW200603);江苏省气象局科研重点项目(200601)资助

摘　　要：以江苏省徐州、南京、射阳3个探空站2002-2006年7～8月逐日观测资料为基础，选取了影响最高温度变化的因子，利用逐步回归方法建立了以徐州、南京、射阳3地为中心的区域预报模型，并对模型的回归效果和预报情况进行分析。剖析了其用于实际预报的合理性和可信度，同时与欧洲中期天气预报中心动力数值预报结果相结合，利用高斯权重插值方法将预报场的格点资料插值到江苏各站点，通过PP法，完成了江苏省最高温度的定量预报。预报当天最高温度误差在1℃以下的概率为50％左右，2℃以下概率在80％左右，该方法可用于最高温度预报。Based on the day-to-day sounding data at Xuzhou, Nanjing, and Sheyang in July and August from 2002 to 2006, the models to＇forecast maximum temperature are established for Xuzhou, Nanjing, and Sheyang using the stepwise regression statistic method and through analyzing and electing some factors influencing temperature. The regression results and forecasts of the model are analyzed thoroughly, and the rationality and credibility are discussed. In combination- with dynamical numerical forecast results of ECMWF, using the Gaussian weight interpolation to insert grid data of the forecast field over Jiangsu Province, the maximum temperature quantitative forecasting for Jiansu Province through the PP method is performed.

关 键 词：最高温度 预报模型 定量预报 误差分布 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P423.3