北京地区奥运期间大风灾害的定量评估  

Risk Assessment of Gale Damage in Beijing Olympic Games

作　　者：程丛兰[1] 李青春[1] 扈海波[1] 刘伟东[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089

出　　处：《气象科技》2008年第6期806-810,共5页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：中国气象局气象新技术推广项目"北京奥运期间气象灾害风险评估技术研究"(CMATG2008 M14)资助

摘　　要：根据北京1971～2006年大风历史资料，对奥运期间（6～10）大风灾害的风险进行了评估。北京的春季大风日数比较多，7～9月大风日数比较少；平均每年6～10月奥运期间出现大风总日数通常为2～3天，最多5天，夏季是适合北京举办奥运会的季节。为了定量评估奥运期间大风灾害的风险，统计了1971～2006年6～10月每次出现大风日的站点数并进行归一化处理，得出奥运期间大风灾害不同等级的空间分布。在大风灾害后果等级小值时，整个北京地区大风灾害风险分布基本一致；在大风灾害后果大值时，北京的大风风险区呈南北走向分布，南部特别是西南部大风风险大，此特点可能与夏季雷雨大风及北京地形有关。The risk assessment of gale damage in Beijing Olympic Games is conducted according to the 36- year wind data in Beijing. The results indicate that there are more strong wind days in spring compared with other seasons, with the most in April and the lest in September. The average number of strong wind days from June to October is usually two or three with the maximum being five. By calculating the number of stations with strong wind from 1971 to 2006, the spatial distribution of risk grades of gale damage during the Beijing Olympic Games （June to October） is worked out. The risk level of gale damage is about the same over the whole Beijing area, and the high risk area spreads in the south-to-north direction with the highest risk in the south, especially the southwest, which may be attributed to the frequent summer rainstorms and the topography of the areas.

关 键 词：大风灾害 风险概率 定量评估 北京地区 奥运会 

分 类 号：P458.12[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S967[农业科学—水产养殖]