AR(p)模型在地下水动态预报中的应用——以石羊河流域平原区为例  

Application of AR(p) Model to the Dynamic Prediction of Groundwater:A Case Study in the Plain of Shiyanghe River Area

作　　者：仲维政[1] 周晓光[1] 龚珑聪[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学环境科学与工程学院,西安710054

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2008年第12期42-44,共3页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(4077103);教育部科学技术研究重点项目(02075)

摘　　要：石羊河流域平原区是我国水资源利用程度最高的地区之一,严重的生态环境问题与地下水位动态变化密不可分。结合MATLAB7.1,通过趋势项、周期项、随机项的迭加建立地下水AR(p)时间序列预报模型,预报近年的地下水水位,预报结果显示该区地下水位将持续下降,应及时加以控制。Shiyanghe River area is an area in China in which water resources are made the best use of , whose serious ecological problem is inseparable from the dynamic state of groundwater. In this paper, an AR（p） model is established by adding the trend item , the period item and the random item combined with MATLAB7.1. The groundwater level in this region in recent years is forecasted and the result indicates that the groundwater level of regions will descend steadily arid measures should be taken in time. The research findings can help groundwater development and water resources management in this area.

关 键 词：AR(P)模型 地下水水位 石羊河流域 动态预报 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]