锦屏一级水电站左岸边坡稳定综合预报研究  

RESEARCH ON COMPREHENSIVE PREDICTION FOR SLOPE STABILITY AT LEFT BANK OF JINPING I HYDROPOWER STATION

作　　者：金海元[1] 徐卫亚[1] 孟永东[1] 张金龙[1] 何涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]河海大学岩土力学与堤坝工程教育部重点实验室 [2]中国水电工程顾问集团公司成都勘测设计研究院,四川成都610072

出　　处：《岩石力学与工程学报》2008年第10期2058-2063,共6页Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(50539110)

摘　　要：在总结国内外有关滑(边)坡预测预报成果的基础上,对其适用性及使用条件进行深入研究。针对锦屏一级水电站左岸高边坡的边坡类型、边坡特征、变形特点和变形机制,在监测成果的基础上,对其进行综合预报,空间上判断左岸拱肩边坡由断层F5,f42–9、深部裂缝SL44–1及煌斑岩脉X互相组合,形成可能边坡失稳块体的边界条件、楔型体滑移失稳模式;时间上采用统计模型及非线性模型多种方法联合预报,根据边坡变形时序曲线的形态及变形速率指出:边坡目前处在缓慢蠕动至匀速变形阶段,变形速率小于0.05 mm/d。设计出适合锦屏一级水电站边坡的综合预测预报模型,初步给定边坡4项预警临界值,为边坡开挖工作的顺利开展提供科学的依据。Based on the summarization of the achievements of landslide prediction at home and abroad, the in-depth study is done on their applicability and service conditions. Aiming at slope types, features, deformation traits and destroy mechanism of high steep valley slope at Jinping I Hydropower Station, and applying monitoring results, a comprehensive prediction design is suggested. In the space, according to the occurrences of unfavorable geological phenomena such as faults F5, f42-9, deep fracture SL44-1 and lamprophyre vein X, all of them can be treated as the boundary conditions for slides, potential instable blocks of slope on the left abutment are estimated which take on a wedge-shaped sliding model. In the sametime, through using three kinds of joint prediction methods such as statistic models and nonlinear models, judging from the shape of curves of deformation-time and their deformation velocities, it is found that the slope is at the state of slowly creeping to uniform deforming with a deforming velocity of 0.05 mm/d. So the comprehensive prediction models fitting for Jinping I Hydropower Station are designed and four early warning criteria are proposed so as to provide scientific evidence for the successful progress of the slope excavation.

关 键 词：边坡工程 边坡监测 预报 预警指标 

分 类 号：P642.22[天文地球—工程地质学]